Description

Decision Making Skills

Decision Making for managers is the identification of alternative solutions to problems, challenges, and opportunities; the analysis of those alternatives; and the selection of the alternative most likely to achieve the desired outcome with the best effect on the organization.

Decision-making in business is important because there are consequences to making the wrong decision. When managers are making decisions on behalf of the company, it is important that they weigh their options because poor choices can result in legal, financial or brand issues.

COURSE OUTLINE

Effective Management Decision Making: Introduction

• The Duality of Decision Making?
• Types of Business and Management Decisions
• Who is involved in Decision Making?- The Decision Body
• The three phased model

Data forecasting

• Simple Averaging Forecasting
• Moving Averages
• Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting
• Errors, accuracy and confidence
• Causal forecasting
• Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve fitting
• Multiple regression and partial regression analysis
• Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality

Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities

• The Decision tree – a map of the solution set
• Decision Analysis
• More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values
• Revising problem information – Bayes Theorem
• The Value of Sample and Perfect Information

Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: Distribution Functions and Queuing Theory

• The mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables
• The discrete distribution – the binomial function
• Extending binomial number sequences

The Poisson sequence

• Queuing Theory
• Examples of Poisson problems
• Queuing Theory – Modelling reality
• Defining the queuing characteristics
• The economic analysis of queues
• Other queuing systems and different waiting line structures
• Example of an arbitrary service time queue

Developing holistic models with qualitative methods of decision analysis: Irrationality in Management Decision Making

• The Monte Carlo Simulation
• Systems thinking about decisions
• Checkland’s Soft System Methodology

The individual in decision making: Heuristics in Management Decision Making

• More on the cognitive view – schematas and heuristics
• More on heuristics

 The role of groups in decision making and long term decision making methods and analysis

• Group decision making – is it really better?
• Group communication
• Convergent thinking emergence in groups- The Abilene Paradox
• Convergent thinking emergence in groups- The Groupthink phenomenon
• Futures forecasting and decision making